Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 38.36%. A win for Bulgaria had a probability of 34.24% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.17%) and 0-2 (6.96%). The likeliest Bulgaria win was 1-0 (10.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.