Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 39.19%. A win for Switzerland had a probability of 36% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.23%) and 2-0 (6.09%). The likeliest Switzerland win was 1-2 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Switzerland would win this match.