Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brazil win with a probability of 50.68%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Serbia had a probability of 23.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brazil win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.72%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%), while for a Serbia win it was 0-1 (7.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brazil would win this match.