Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 43.95%. A win for Bahrain had a probability of 30.56% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.06%) and 0-2 (7.51%). The likeliest Bahrain win was 1-0 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Serbia would win this match.