CONCACAF Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg

Nov 18, 2023 at 2am UK

Estadio Tiburcio Carias Andino

Honduras
2 - 0
Mexico

Lozano (30', 30'), Rochez (72', 72')
Rivas (45+2'), Rivas (45+2'), Rosales (52'), Rosales (52'), Lozano (58'), Lozano (58'), Elis (90+7')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Sanchez (41'), Sanchez (41'), Vasquez (90+3'), Montes (90+7'), Vasquez (90+3'), Malagon (90+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's CONCACAF Nations League clash between Honduras and Mexico, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Honduras

All competitions

CONCACAF Nations League

Last Game: Honduras 4-0 Cuba
Monday, October 16 at 1am in CONCACAF Nations League

Current League A Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Jamaica	4	5	10
2	Honduras	4	7	7
3	Suriname	4	3	5
4	Cuba	4	-3	5
5	Haiti	4	-1	3
6	Grenada	4	-11	1

Mexico

All competitions

Last Game: Mexico 2-2 Germany
Wednesday, October 18 at 1am in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mexico	3	5	6
2	Qatar	3	0	4
3	Honduras	3	-3	4
4	Haiti	3	-2	3

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 46.87%. A win for Honduras had a probability of 27.32% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.21%) and 0-2 (8.51%). The likeliest Honduras win was 1-0 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.

Result
Honduras	Draw	Mexico
27.32% ( 0.02)	25.8% ( 0)	46.87% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 51.38% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.74%

52.26%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.04% (

-0)

73.96% (

Honduras Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.11% (

0.02)

33.89% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.44% (

0.02)

70.56% (

-0.02)

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.71% (

-0.01)

22.28% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.26% (

-0.02)

55.74% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Honduras 27.32%

Mexico 46.87%

Draw 25.79%

Honduras	Draw	Mexico
1-0 @ 8.17% ( 0) 2-1 @ 6.64% ( 0) 2-0 @ 4.42% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.39% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.8% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.6% ( 0) Other @ 2.31% Total : 27.32%	1-1 @ 12.26% 0-0 @ 7.55% 2-2 @ 4.98% ( 0) Other @ 1% Total : 25.79%	0-1 @ 11.33% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 9.21% ( -0) 0-2 @ 8.51% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.61% ( -0) 0-3 @ 4.26% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.49% 1-4 @ 1.73% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.6% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.19% Total : 46.87%