With only a point separating the two sides in World Cup 2022 qualifying, Wednesday's encounter between Mexico and Panama certainly has a big game feel about it.
El Tri sit in the third and final automatic qualification spot after accumulating 18 points, while the visitors are just a point behind in the one and only playoff place.
Match preview
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After coming from a goal down to beat the 10 men of Jamaica 2-1, Mexico had the opportunity to claim back-to-back victories when they hosted Costa Rica on Sunday.
Unfortunately for El Tri, they were unable to break through the resilient Costa Rica rearguard, forcing them to settle for a goalless draw.
Having won once in their previous four qualifiers, Mexico are now embroiled in a battle to qualify for their eighth consecutive World Cup.
Although they may be struggling for victories, El Tri usually fare well on home turf, demonstrated by the eight points that they have collected from their four home qualifiers.
Before Sunday's goalless draw, Mexico had scored in eight successive home World Cup qualifiers, and after failing to score in a home qualifier for the first time since September 2016, the hosts will be hungry for goals on Wednesday.
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As for Panama, three wins from their last four qualifying games has reinvigorated their hopes of reaching only their second World Cup finals.
After losing 1-0 away to Costa Rica, Los Canaleros returned home for an encounter with Jamaica, and the hosts started off poorly, conceding from an early penalty before missing a spot kick of their own.
Two minutes before half time, Panama restored parity courtesy of a Javain Brown own goal before Eric Davis and Azmahar Ariano struck to give Los Canaleros the lead and despite conceding late on, the hosts held firm to claim a 3-2 victory.
Four points clear of Costa Rica, Thomas Christiansen's side currently have a firm grip on the playoff spot, but they will still have their sights set on automatic qualification.
A victory on Wednesday would see them leapfrog Mexico in the standings, and at the very least they will be confident of troubling the home side's defence after scoring 14 goals in the final round of CONCACAF qualifying - only Canada have scored more.
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Team News
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Mexico will be without the services of Luis Rodriguez and Hector Moreno with the duo suspended for an accumulation of yellow cards
With Rodriguez and Moreno suspended, Julian Araujo and Nestor Araujo could come into the backline for the meeting with Panama.
Edson Alvarez had to be withdrawn at half time against Costa Rica after picking up a knock and the Ajax defender is a doubt for Wednesday's contest.
Meanwhile, Panama may have to make a change in the centre of defence after Andres Andrade was withdrawn in the first half against Jamaica, with Ariano expected to be Andrade's replacement.
Alberto Quintero and Cesar Yanis are set to keep their places in the side after starting in the victory over Jamaica.
Rolando Blackburn was also brought into the starting lineup on Sunday, and he will be looking to add to the three goals that he has scored in qualifying when he leads the line on Wednesday.
Mexico possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; J. Araujo, Montes, N. Araujo, Gallardo; Herrera, C. Rodriguez, Pineda; Corona, Lozano, Funes Mori
Panama possible starting lineup:
Mejia; Escobar, Davis, Ariano, Murillo; Carrasquilla, Godoy, Quintero; Barcenas, Yanis, Blackburn
We say: Mexico 2-1 Panama
With only a point separating the two sides in the standings, Wednesday's encounter is expected to be a close contest, but having won four of the previous five meetings, history is on Mexico's side, and we think that they will edge out Panama to claim a crucial victory.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 60.53%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Panama had a probability of 15.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.76%) and 2-1 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.95%), while for a Panama win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Mexico in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Mexico.
