Australian A-League | Gameweek 3

Nov 3, 2024 at 5am UK

AAMI Park

Victory
2 - 1
Macarthur

Arzani (69' pen., 69' pen.), Piscopo (75', 75')
Geria (82'), Geria (82')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Germain (51', 51')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Macarthur.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Australian A-League

Last Game: Melbourne City 1-3 Victory
Saturday, October 26 at 9.35am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Macarthur

All competitions

Last Game: Macarthur 1-2 Newcastle Jets
Friday, October 25 at 9.35am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 50.21%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 27.69% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.96%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Melbourne Victory in this match.

Result
Melbourne Victory	Draw	Macarthur
50.21% ( 0.33)	22.1% ( 0.07)	27.69% ( -0.41)

Both teams to score 64.26% (

-0.62)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.55% (

-0.67)

35.44% (

0.66)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.51% (

-0.74)

57.48% (

0.73)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.53% (

-0.13)

14.46% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.57% (

-0.25)

42.42% (

0.24)

Macarthur Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.12% (

-0.61)

24.87% (

0.6)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.52% (

-0.85)

59.48% (

0.84)

Score Analysis

Melbourne Victory 50.21%

Macarthur 27.69%

Draw 22.1%

Melbourne Victory	Draw	Macarthur
2-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 6.96% ( 0.2) 2-0 @ 6.72% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 6.03% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.33% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 4.2% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 2.92% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.1% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 2.03% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 1.13% ( -0.01) 4-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.51% Total : 50.21%	1-1 @ 9.68% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 6.51% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 3.6% ( 0.12) 3-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.37% Total : 22.1%	1-2 @ 6.73% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 5.01% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 3.48% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.12% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 3.02% ( -0.09) 0-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.05) 2-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.57% Total : 27.69%