Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 52.32%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 27.39% and a draw had a probability of 20.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.45%) and 2-0 (5.47%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (6.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.