Australian A-League | Gameweek 5

Nov 24, 2023 at 8.45am UK

Campbelltown Stadium (Sydney)

Macarthur
1 - 1
Victory

Millar (12')
Aspropotamitis (7'), Davila (43'), Sterjovski (72')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Nicolaou (90+5' og.)
Da Silva (42'), Traore (53'), Arzani (66')
Traore (62')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Macarthur and Melbourne Victory.

Form, Standings, Stats

Macarthur

All competitions

Last Game: Melbourne City 3-3 Macarthur
Sunday, November 12 at 4am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 1-1 Wellington
Friday, November 10 at 8.45am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 38.99%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 37.47% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.72%) and 2-0 (5.39%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.

Result
Macarthur	Draw	Melbourne Victory
38.99% ( -0.38)	23.54% ( -0.06)	37.47% ( 0.44)

Both teams to score 63.24% (

0.24)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.43% (

0.3)

38.57% (

-0.3)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.13% (

0.32)

60.86% (

-0.32)

Macarthur Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.88% (

-0.05)

20.11% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.63% (

-0.08)

52.37% (

0.08)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.16% (

0.35)

20.83% (

-0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.48% (

0.55)

53.51% (

-0.55)

Score Analysis

Macarthur 38.99%

Melbourne Victory 37.47%

Draw 23.54%

Macarthur	Draw	Melbourne Victory
2-1 @ 8.45% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 6.72% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 5.39% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 4.52% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 3.55% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.88% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 1.81% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.42% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.16% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.09% Total : 38.99%	1-1 @ 10.54% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 6.63% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.19% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.54%	1-2 @ 8.27% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 6.57% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 5.15% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 4.32% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 3.47% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 2.7% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 1.7% ( 0.05) 2-4 @ 1.36% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.88% Total : 37.47%