Australian A-League | Gameweek 25

Apr 23, 2023 at 6am UK

AAMI Park

Victory
2 - 1
Macarthur

Romero (3'), Brooks (90+4')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Uskok (66')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Macarthur, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Western Sydney 2-1 Victory
Saturday, April 15 at 10.45am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Macarthur

All competitions

Last Game: Newcastle Jets 2-1 Macarthur
Friday, April 14 at 10.45am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 53.76%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 24.07% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.97%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (6.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Melbourne Victory in this match.

Result
Melbourne Victory	Draw	Macarthur
53.76% ( 0.35)	22.17% ( 0)	24.07% ( -0.35)

Both teams to score 60.23% (

-0.44)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.87% (

-0.39)

39.13% (

0.39)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.54% (

-0.41)

61.45% (

0.41)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.4% (

-0.02)

14.6% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.31% (

-0.04)

42.69% (

0.04)

Macarthur Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.53% (

-0.49)

29.47% (

0.49)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.52% (

-0.61)

65.48% (

0.6)

Score Analysis

Melbourne Victory 53.76%

Macarthur 24.07%

Draw 22.16%

Melbourne Victory	Draw	Macarthur
2-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 8.28% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 7.97% ( 0.13) 3-1 @ 6.24% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.11% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 3.81% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 3% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.46% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.83% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.16% ( 0) 5-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.22% Total : 53.76%	1-1 @ 10.11% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.95% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 4.3% ( 0.08) 3-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.25% Total : 22.16%	1-2 @ 6.18% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 5.26% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 3.21% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.52% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.18% Total : 24.07%