Australian A-League | Gameweek 22

Apr 1, 2023 at 3am UK

Westpac Stadium

Wellington
1 - 2
Victory

Zawada (25')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Fornaroli (58'), Da Silva (76')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Australian A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions

Last Game: Adelaide United 5-1 Wellington
Friday, March 17 at 8.45am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 2-0 Central Coast
Sunday, March 19 at 6am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 40.49%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 34.43% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (6.49%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-0 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.

Result
Wellington Phoenix	Draw	Melbourne Victory
34.43% ( -0.38)	25.08% ( 0.07)	40.49% ( 0.3)

Both teams to score 57.15% (

-0.34)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.69% (

-0.4)

46.31% (

0.4)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.4% (

-0.38)

68.59% (

0.38)

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.98% (

-0.41)

26.02% (

0.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.94% (

-0.56)

61.05% (

0.55)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.25% (

-0.03)

22.75% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.57% (

-0.04)

56.43% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Wellington Phoenix 34.43%

Melbourne Victory 40.49%

Draw 25.08%

Wellington Phoenix	Draw	Melbourne Victory
1-0 @ 7.97% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.94% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 5.36% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 3.56% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 2.64% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 2.41% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.2% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.34% Total : 34.43%	1-1 @ 11.8% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 5.92% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.08%	0-1 @ 8.77% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 8.74% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 6.49% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 4.31% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 3.2% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 2.9% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.6% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.19% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.23% Total : 40.49%