Australian A-League Gameweek 22
Wellington
Apr 1, 2023 3.00am
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Westpac Stadium
Victory
  • Oskar Zawada 25' goal
  • goal Bruno Fornaroli 58'
  • goal Damien Da Silva 76'

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions
Australian A-League
Last game
Mar 17, 2023 8.45am
Adelaide United 5 - 1 Wellington
Goals scored
39
Top scorer
Oskar Zawada

Melbourne Victory

All competitions
Australian A-League
Last game
Mar 19, 2023 6.00am
Victory 2 - 0 Central Coast
Goals scored
29
Top scorer
Bruno Fornaroli

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 40.49%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 34.43% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (6.49%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-0 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.

Result

Wellington Phoenix 34.43% ▼ (-0.38)
Draw 25.08% ▲ (+0.08)
Melbourne Victory 40.49% ▲ (+0.31)

Both Teams to Score: 

57.15% ▼ (-0.34)

Goals

Over 2.5 53.69% ▼ (-0.41)
Under 2.5 46.31% ▲ (+0.41)
Over 3.5 31.4% ▼ (-0.39)
Under 3.5 68.59% ▲ (+0.38)
Over 4.5 15.65% ▼ (-0.28)
Under 4.5 84.34% ▲ (+0.27)

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5 73.98% ▼ (-0.41)
Under 0.5 26.02% ▲ (+0.41)
Over 1.5 38.94% ▼ (-0.56)
Under 1.5 61.05% ▲ (+0.56)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5 77.25% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 0.5 22.75% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 1.5 43.57% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 1.5 56.43% ▲ (+0.04)

Score analysis

Wellington Phoenix 34.43%
Draw 25.08%
Melbourne Victory 40.49%
Wellington Phoenix
1-0 @ 7.97% ▲ (+0.05)
2-1 @ 7.94% ▼ (-0.06)
2-0 @ 5.36% ▼ (-0.04)
3-1 @ 3.56% ▼ (-0.07)
3-2 @ 2.64% ▼ (-0.06)
3-0 @ 2.41% ▼ (-0.05)
4-1 @ 1.2% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 3.34%
Total : 34.43%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.8% ▲ (+0.07)
0-0 @ 5.92% ▲ (+0.10)
2-2 @ 5.88% ▼ (-0.05)
3-3 @ 1.3% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 25.08%
Melbourne Victory
0-1 @ 8.77% ▲ (+0.15)
1-2 @ 8.74% ▲ (+0.04)
0-2 @ 6.49% ▲ (+0.10)
1-3 @ 4.31% ▲ (+0.02)
0-3 @ 3.2% ▲ (+0.05)
2-3 @ 2.9% ▼ (-0.03)
1-4 @ 1.6% ▲ (+0.01)
0-4 @ 1.19% ▲ (+0.02)
2-4 @ 1.07% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 2.23%
Total : 40.49%

Head to Head

Australian A-League Gameweek 15
Victory
Feb 3, 2023 8.45am
3
1
HT : 1 1
FT AAMI Park
Wellington
  • Bruno Fornaroli 32' goal
  • Jake Brimmer 54' goal
  • Tomi Juric 90'+1' goal
  • goal Oskar Zawada 13'
Australian A-League Gameweek 26
Victory
Apr 29, 2022 10.45am
3
1
HT : 1 1
FT
Wellington
  • Nicholas D'Agostino 2' goal
  • Leigh Broxham 24' yellowcard
  • Nicholas D'Agostino 39' yellowcard
  • Stefan Nigro 43' yellowcard
  • Marco Rojas 54' yellowcard
  • Jake Brimmer 68' goal
  • Marco Rojas 78' goal
  • yellowcard Scott Wootton 13'
  • goal Gael Sandoval 26'
  • yellowcard Finn Surman 71'
  • yellowcard Nicholas Pennington 77'
Australian A-League Gameweek 12
Wellington
Feb 9, 2022 8.05am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Victory
  • David Ball 57' yellowcard
  • Reno Piscopo 74' goal
  • Louis Fenton 76' yellowcard
  • Reno Piscopo 90' yellowcard
Australian A-League Gameweek 13
Wellington
Mar 24, 2021 8.05am
4
1
HT : 2 0
FT
Victory
  • Tomer Hemed 11' goal
  • David Ball 36' goal
  • Ulises Davila 62' goal
  • Clayton Lewis 68' goal
  • Louis Fenton 74' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Adama Traore 65'
  • yellowcard Robbie Kruse 70'
  • goal Elvis Kamsoba 76'
  • yellowcard Jacob Butterfield 90'+1'
Australian A-League Gameweek 8
Victory
Feb 24, 2021 8.05am
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT AAMI Park
Wellington
  • Leigh Broxham 34' yellowcard
  • Ryan Shotton 37' yellowcard
  • Rudy Gestede 45'+3' goal
  • Rudy Gestede 49' goal
  • Dalibor Markovic 55' yellowcard
  • Aaron Anderson 62' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Mirza Muratovic 18'
  • yellowcard James McGarry 25'
  • yellowcard Louis Fenton 51'
Australian A-League Gameweek 23
Wellington
Mar 15, 2020 5.20am
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT
Victory
  • Ulises Davila 3' goal
  • Cameron Devlin 10' yellowcard
  • Gary Hooper 21' goal
  • David Ball 55' goal
  • Alex Rufer 66' yellowcard
  • Matti Steinmann 78' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Birkan Kirdar 20'
  • yellowcard Storm Roux 57'
  • yellowcard Andrew Nabbout 86'

Form Data

Adelaide United 5 - 1 Wellington
Wellington 1 - 0 Sydney FC
Wellington 2 - 1 Newcastle Jets
Central Coast 1 - 1 Wellington
Western Utd 0 - 3 Wellington
Macarthur 2 - 1 Wellington
Victory 2 - 0 Central Coast
Victory 1 - 2 Western Utd
Sydney FC 1 - 0 Victory
Victory 1 - 1 Adelaide United
Victory 3 - 2 Melbourne City
Newcastle Jets 2 - 1 Victory