Australian A-League | Gameweek 21

Mar 17, 2023 at 8.45am UK

Coopers Stadium

Adelaide United
5 - 1
Wellington

Wootton (16' og.), Jovanovic (23'), Barr (51'), Ibusuki (62'), Goodwin (71')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Rufer (54' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Australian A-League clash between Adelaide United and Wellington Phoenix, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Adelaide United

All competitions

Last Game: Newcastle Jets 2-4 Adelaide United
Saturday, March 11 at 8.45am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions

Last Game: Wellington 1-0 Sydney FC
Sunday, March 12 at 2am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 46.74%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 30.18% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.44%) and 2-0 (6.63%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (7.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.

Result
Adelaide United	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
46.74% ( -1.34)	23.07% ( 0.01)	30.18% ( 1.33)

Both teams to score 62.53% (

0.87)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.5% (

0.75)

38.5% (

-0.75)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.2% (

0.79)

60.79% (

-0.79)

Adelaide United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.17% (

-0.21)

16.83% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.18% (

-0.38)

46.82% (

0.38)

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.18% (

1.23)

24.81% (

-1.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.59% (

1.68)

59.4% (

-1.69)

Score Analysis

Adelaide United 46.74%

Wellington Phoenix 30.19%

Draw 23.07%

Adelaide United	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
2-1 @ 9.24% ( -0.14) 1-0 @ 7.44% ( -0.33) 2-0 @ 6.63% ( -0.34) 3-1 @ 5.49% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 3.94% ( -0.23) 3-2 @ 3.83% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 2.45% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 1.76% ( -0.12) 4-2 @ 1.7% ( 0.01) Other @ 4.26% Total : 46.74%	1-1 @ 10.37% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 6.44% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 4.18% ( -0.15) 3-3 @ 1.78% ( 0.09) Other @ 0.31% Total : 23.07%	1-2 @ 7.23% ( 0.2) 0-1 @ 5.82% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.06% ( 0.14) 1-3 @ 3.36% ( 0.21) 2-3 @ 2.99% ( 0.16) 0-3 @ 1.88% ( 0.13) 1-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.11) 2-4 @ 1.04% ( 0.09) Other @ 2.63% Total : 30.19%