Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 53.77%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 23.95% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.47%) and 0-2 (8.08%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 2-1 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.