Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 54.5%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 22.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.82%) and 0-2 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a Melbourne Victory win it was 1-0 (6.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
Result | ||
Melbourne Victory | Draw | Melbourne City |
22.24% ( 0.25) | 23.26% ( 0.18) | 54.5% ( -0.43) |
Both teams to score 54.17% ( -0.25) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.93% ( -0.49) | 46.08% ( 0.5) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.63% ( -0.47) | 68.38% ( 0.47) |
Melbourne Victory Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.11% ( -0.04) | 34.89% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.37% ( -0.04) | 71.63% ( 0.05) |
Melbourne City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.2% ( -0.33) | 16.8% ( 0.33) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.24% ( -0.59) | 46.77% ( 0.59) |
Score Analysis |
Melbourne Victory | Draw | Melbourne City |
1-0 @ 6.17% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 5.8% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 3.25% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.14% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.04% Total : 22.24% | 1-1 @ 11.01% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 5.86% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 5.17% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.14% Total : 23.26% | 0-1 @ 10.45% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 9.82% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 9.33% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 5.84% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 5.55% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 3.07% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 2.6% ( -0.06) 0-4 @ 2.47% ( -0.06) 2-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.03) 1-5 @ 0.93% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.06% Total : 54.49% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 55 |
2 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 53 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 41 |
5 | Macarthur | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 39 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 37 |
8 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 52 | 53 | -1 | 32 |
9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 30 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 22 |
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