Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 42.64%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 32.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.92%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Newcastle Jets | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
32.49% ( -0.25) | 24.87% ( -0.37) | 42.64% ( 0.63) |
Both teams to score 57.3% ( 1.18) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.14% ( 1.58) | 45.86% ( -1.58) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.83% ( 1.49) | 68.17% ( -1.48) |
Newcastle Jets Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.02% ( 0.61) | 26.98% ( -0.61) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.68% ( 0.79) | 62.33% ( -0.78) |
Melbourne Victory Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.48% ( 0.98) | 21.53% ( -0.97) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.41% ( 1.48) | 54.59% ( -1.47) |
Score Analysis |
Newcastle Jets | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
2-1 @ 7.66% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.61% ( -0.38) 2-0 @ 4.98% ( -0.16) 3-1 @ 3.34% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.57% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 2.18% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.1% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.07% Total : 32.49% | 1-1 @ 11.68% ( -0.24) 2-2 @ 5.88% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 5.81% ( -0.4) 3-3 @ 1.31% ( 0.09) Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.86% | 1-2 @ 8.97% ( 0.08) 0-1 @ 8.92% ( -0.34) 0-2 @ 6.85% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 4.6% ( 0.17) 0-3 @ 3.51% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 3.01% ( 0.16) 1-4 @ 1.76% ( 0.12) 0-4 @ 1.35% ( 0.07) 2-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.09) Other @ 2.52% Total : 42.64% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 55 |
2 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 53 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 41 |
5 | Macarthur | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 39 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 37 |
8 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 52 | 53 | -1 | 32 |
9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 30 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 22 |
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