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Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League | Gameweek 18
Feb 26, 2023 at 4am UK
AAMI Park
Adelaide United

Victory
1 - 1
Adelaide United

Fornaroli (81' pen.)
FT(HT: 0-0)
Irankunda (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Adelaide United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions
Last Game: Victory 3-2 Melbourne City
Saturday, February 18 at 8.45am in Australian A-League

Adelaide United

All competitions
Last Game: Adelaide United 4-4 Western Sydney
Sunday, February 19 at 4am in Australian A-League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 56.79%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 21.72% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.45%) and 1-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (5.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Melbourne VictoryDrawAdelaide United
56.79% (0.214 0.21)21.48% (-0.167 -0.17)21.72% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)
Both teams to score 59.49% (0.522 0.52)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.31% (0.72 0.72)38.69% (-0.725 -0.73)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39% (0.75700000000001 0.76)60.99% (-0.762 -0.76)
Melbourne Victory Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.5% (0.30200000000001 0.3)13.49% (-0.307 -0.31)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.47% (0.60599999999999 0.61)40.52% (-0.611 -0.61)
Adelaide United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.77% (0.36200000000001 0.36)31.23% (-0.366 -0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.42% (0.418 0.42)67.57% (-0.423 -0.42)
Score Analysis
    Melbourne Victory 56.8%
    Adelaide United 21.72%
    Draw 21.48%
Melbourne VictoryDrawAdelaide United
2-1 @ 9.84% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
2-0 @ 8.45% (-0.098000000000001 -0.1)
1-0 @ 8.44% (-0.195 -0.2)
3-1 @ 6.57% (0.064 0.06)
3-0 @ 5.64% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 3.82% (0.075 0.08)
4-1 @ 3.29% (0.069 0.07)
4-0 @ 2.83% (0.031 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.91% (0.059 0.06)
5-1 @ 1.32% (0.041 0.04)
5-0 @ 1.13% (0.025 0.02)
Other @ 3.56%
Total : 56.8%
1-1 @ 9.82% (-0.126 -0.13)
2-2 @ 5.73% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
0-0 @ 4.21% (-0.146 -0.15)
3-3 @ 1.48% (0.044 0.04)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 21.48%
1-2 @ 5.72% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
0-1 @ 4.9% (-0.12 -0.12)
0-2 @ 2.85% (-0.04 -0.04)
2-3 @ 2.22% (0.041 0.04)
1-3 @ 2.22% (0.016 0.02)
0-3 @ 1.11% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 21.72%

How you voted: Victory vs Adelaide United

Melbourne Victory
47.1%
Draw
23.5%
Adelaide United
29.4%
17
Head to Head
Jan 14, 2023 8.45am
Adelaide United
1-1
Victory
Goodwin (7')
Lopez (20'), Juande (45+3'), Popovic (52'), D'Arrigo (60'), Alagich (90+6')
D'Agostino (49')
Broxham (18'), D'Agostino (86')
Nov 11, 2022 8.45am
Adelaide United
3-0
Victory
Ibusuki (37'), Goodwin (86' pen.), Warland (90+1')
Alagich (49')
Apr 2, 2022 9.45am
Adelaide United
0-1
Victory

Ibusuki (45+3'), Juande (61'), Lopez (66')
Rojas (7')
Spiranovic (27'), Margiotta (49'), Kelava (90+6')
Jan 8, 2022 8.45am
Victory
1-1
Adelaide United
D'Agostino (84')
Brooks (90+4')
Goodwin (90+1')
Timotheou (49'), Sanchez (79'), Juande (90')
Sanchez (90+2')
Dec 11, 2021 8.45am
Adelaide United
1-2
Victory
Tratt (70')
Yengi (26'), Sanchez (31'), Halloran (39'), Tratt (53')
Margiotta (59'), Velupillay (78')
Miranda (27'), Davidson (29'), Kruse (90+5')
Davidson (88')