Australian A-League | Gameweek 16

Feb 12, 2023 at 6am UK

Campbelltown Stadium (Sydney)

Macarthur
2 - 1
Wellington

Davila (32'), Najjar (49')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Kraev (4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Australian A-League clash between Macarthur and Wellington Phoenix, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Macarthur

All competitions

Last Game: Melbourne City 6-1 Macarthur
Saturday, February 4 at 6am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 3-1 Wellington
Friday, February 3 at 8.45am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 37.94%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 37.76% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.48%) and 2-0 (5.62%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Macarthur in this match.

Result
Macarthur	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
37.94% ( -0.41)	24.31% ( -0.09)	37.76% ( 0.51)

Both teams to score 60.34% (

0.36)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.66% (

0.46)

42.34% (

-0.45)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.26% (

0.46)

64.75% (

-0.45)

Macarthur Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.72% (

-0)

22.28% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.27% (

-0.01)

55.73% (

0.01)

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.63% (

0.47)

22.37% (

-0.46)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.13% (

0.69)

55.87% (

-0.69)

Score Analysis

Macarthur 37.94%

Wellington Phoenix 37.76%

Draw 24.3%

Macarthur	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
2-1 @ 8.41% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 7.48% ( -0.15) 2-0 @ 5.62% ( -0.12) 3-1 @ 4.21% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 3.15% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 2.81% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 1.58% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.18% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.06% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.43% Total : 37.94%	1-1 @ 11.2% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 6.3% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 4.98% ( -0.1) 3-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.3%	1-2 @ 8.39% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 7.46% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 5.59% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 4.19% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 3.14% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 2.79% ( 0.06) 1-4 @ 1.57% ( 0.05) 2-4 @ 1.18% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 1.04% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.41% Total : 37.76%