Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 45.24%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 31.02% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8%) and 2-0 (6.75%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (7.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.
Result | ||
Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Macarthur |
45.24% | 23.73% | 31.02% |
Both teams to score 60.62% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.78% | 41.22% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.38% | 63.61% |
Wellington Phoenix Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.51% | 18.48% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.31% | 49.69% |
Macarthur Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.36% | 25.63% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.47% | 60.53% |
Score Analysis |
Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Macarthur |
2-1 @ 9.19% 1-0 @ 8% 2-0 @ 6.75% 3-1 @ 5.17% 3-0 @ 3.8% 3-2 @ 3.52% 4-1 @ 2.18% 4-0 @ 1.6% 4-2 @ 1.49% Other @ 3.53% Total : 45.24% | 1-1 @ 10.88% 2-2 @ 6.26% 0-0 @ 4.74% 3-3 @ 1.6% Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.72% | 1-2 @ 7.41% 0-1 @ 6.45% 0-2 @ 4.39% 1-3 @ 3.36% 2-3 @ 2.84% 0-3 @ 1.99% 1-4 @ 1.14% 2-4 @ 0.97% Other @ 2.47% Total : 31.02% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 39 | 26 | 13 | 50 |
2 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 44 | 26 | 18 | 49 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 26 | 10 | 12 | 4 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 42 |
4 | Macarthur | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 41 |
5 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 38 |
6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 38 | 11 | 36 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 34 |
8 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 30 |
9 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 48 | 48 | 0 | 29 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 38 | 44 | -6 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 36 | 54 | -18 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 22 |
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