Australian A-League | Gameweek 10

Jan 2, 2023 at 2am UK

Westpac Stadium

Wellington
1 - 3
Melbourne City

Ball (16')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Leckie (18'), MacLaren (51' pen., 90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Australian A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions

Last Game: Perth Glory 1-1 Wellington
Friday, December 23 at 11.30am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Melbourne City

All competitions

Last Game: Melbourne City 1-0 Central Coast
Tuesday, December 27 at 6.30am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 59.9%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 19.19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.25%) and 0-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.69%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 2-1 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.

Result
Wellington Phoenix	Draw	Melbourne City
19.19% ( 0.11)	20.91% ( 0.06)	59.9% ( -0.17)

Both teams to score 57.32% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.36% (

-0.13)

39.63% (

0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.02% (

-0.13)

61.98% (

0.13)

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.79% (

0.04)

34.21% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.09% (

0.04)

70.9% (

-0.04)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.12% (

-0.09)

12.87% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.73% (

-0.18)

39.27% (

0.18)

Score Analysis

Wellington Phoenix 19.19%

Melbourne City 59.9%

Draw 20.91%

Wellington Phoenix	Draw	Melbourne City
2-1 @ 5.2% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 4.73% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 2.53% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.9% ( 0) 3-1 @ 1.86% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.06% Total : 19.19%	1-1 @ 9.69% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.32% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.4% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0) Other @ 0.2% Total : 20.91%	1-2 @ 9.93% ( 0) 0-2 @ 9.25% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 6.78% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 6.32% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 3.64% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 3.48% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 3.24% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.86% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 1.43% ( -0.01) 0-5 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.62% Total : 59.9%