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Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League | Gameweek 20
Mar 12, 2023 at 2am UK
Westpac Stadium
Sydney FC

Wellington
1 - 0
Sydney FC

Zawada (21')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Australian A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Sydney FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions
Last Game: Wellington 2-1 Newcastle Jets
Saturday, March 4 at 2am in Australian A-League

Sydney FC

All competitions
Last Game: Sydney FC 1-0 Victory
Saturday, March 4 at 8.45am in Australian A-League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sydney FC win with a probability of 42.33%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 34.23% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sydney FC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.05%) and 0-2 (5.92%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.

Result
Wellington PhoenixDrawSydney FC
34.23% (1.284 1.28)23.44% (0.291 0.29)42.33% (-1.571 -1.57)
Both teams to score 63.05% (-0.63 -0.63)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.41% (-1.008 -1.01)38.59% (1.012 1.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.11% (-1.074 -1.07)60.89% (1.077 1.08)
Wellington Phoenix Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.49% (0.232 0.23)22.51% (-0.228 -0.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.92% (0.342 0.34)56.08% (-0.338 -0.34)
Sydney FC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.37% (-1.056 -1.06)18.63% (1.061 1.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.06% (-1.808 -1.81)49.94% (1.812 1.81)
Score Analysis
    Wellington Phoenix 34.23%
    Sydney FC 42.33%
    Draw 23.43%
Wellington PhoenixDrawSydney FC
2-1 @ 7.84% (0.215 0.22)
1-0 @ 6.26% (0.336 0.34)
2-0 @ 4.66% (0.28 0.28)
3-1 @ 3.9% (0.133 0.13)
3-2 @ 3.27% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-0 @ 2.32% (0.154 0.15)
4-1 @ 1.45% (0.059 0.06)
4-2 @ 1.22% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 3.32%
Total : 34.23%
1-1 @ 10.5% (0.21 0.21)
2-2 @ 6.58% (-0.042 -0.04)
0-0 @ 4.19% (0.198 0.2)
3-3 @ 1.83% (-0.063 -0.06)
Other @ 0.32%
Total : 23.43%
1-2 @ 8.83% (-0.118 -0.12)
0-1 @ 7.05% (0.1 0.1)
0-2 @ 5.92% (-0.12 -0.12)
1-3 @ 4.95% (-0.24 -0.24)
2-3 @ 3.69% (-0.153 -0.15)
0-3 @ 3.32% (-0.185 -0.19)
1-4 @ 2.08% (-0.177 -0.18)
2-4 @ 1.55% (-0.12 -0.12)
0-4 @ 1.39% (-0.129 -0.13)
Other @ 3.56%
Total : 42.33%

How you voted: Wellington vs Sydney FC

Wellington Phoenix
55.6%
Draw
11.1%
Sydney FC
33.3%
9
Head to Head
Jan 7, 2023 6am
Sydney FC
0-1
Wellington

Retre (53'), Burgess (86')
Zawada (10')
Kraev (34'), Sail (88')
Kraev (71'), Pennington (86')
Feb 19, 2022 6.05am
Wellington
1-1
Sydney FC
Ball (43')
Sandoval (40'), Laws (45+1')
Bobo (67')
Kamsoba (45+1'), Amini (74'), Caceres (78')
Dec 19, 2021 7.45am
Sydney FC
2-1
Wellington
Kamsoba (19'), Le Fondre (57')
Retre (61')
Waine (83')
Feb 8, 2021 8.10am
Sydney FC
2-1
Wellington
Barbarouses (32', 64')
Brattan (27'), Nieuwenhof (34'), Barbarouses (41'), Grant (61')
Davila (90+3')
Rufer (29'), Ball (90+7')
Jan 2, 2021 6.05am
Wellington
1-2
Sydney FC
Muratovic (45+1')
Payne (44'), Laws (67')
Nieuwenhof (29'), Brattan (55')
Warland (5'), Nieuwenhof (25'), Caceres (36'), Buhagiar (61'), Brattan (66')