Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 51.13%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 25.98% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.45%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.