Oct 29, 2023 6.00am

5

3

HT : 4 1

FT Melbourne Rectangular Stadium

Bruno Fornaroli 8'
Bruno Fornaroli 31'
Bruno Fornaroli 40'
Bruno Fornaroli 45'+3'
Nishan Velupillay 55'

Mark Natta 6'
Carl Jenkinson 27'
Clayton Taylor 49'
Trent Buhagiar 58'
Clayton Taylor 74'

Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

W
L
W
L
D
L

Australian A-League

W
L
W
L
D
L

Last game

Oct 21, 2023 9.45am

Sydney FC 0 - 2 Victory

Goals scored

47

Top scorer

Bruno Fornaroli

Newcastle Jets

All competitions

D
L
L
W
L
D

Australian A-League

D
L
L
W
L
D

Last game

Oct 22, 2023 9.45am

Perth Glory 2 - 2 Newcastle Jets

Goals scored

39

Top scorer

Apostolos Stamatelopoulos

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 49.42%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 26.6% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.53%) and 2-0 (8.09%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.

Result

Melbourne Victory 49.42% ▲ (+0.78)

Draw 23.97% ▼ (-0.16)

Newcastle Jets 26.6% ▼ (-0.63)

Both Teams to Score:

56.64% ▼ (-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5 54.93% ▲ (+0.22)

Under 2.5 45.07% ▼ (-0.23)

Over 3.5 32.58% ▲ (+0.22)

Under 3.5 67.41% ▼ (-0.22)

Over 4.5 16.49% ▲ (+0.15)

Under 4.5 83.5% ▼ (-0.16)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5 81.68% ▲ (+0.40)

Under 0.5 18.32% ▼ (-0.40)

Over 1.5 50.59% ▲ (+0.66)

Under 1.5 49.41% ▼ (-0.67)

Newcastle Jets Goals

Over 0.5 69.34% ▼ (-0.36)

Under 0.5 30.65% ▲ (+0.36)

Over 1.5 33.1% ▼ (-0.43)

Under 1.5 66.9% ▲ (+0.43)

Score analysis

Melbourne Victory 49.42%

Draw 23.96%

Newcastle Jets 26.6%

Melbourne Victory

2-1 @ 9.56% ▲ (+0.06)

1-0 @ 9.53% ▲ (+0.03)

2-0 @ 8.09% ▲ (+0.13)

3-1 @ 5.41% ▲ (+0.10)

3-0 @ 4.58% ▲ (+0.13)

3-2 @ 3.2% ▲ (+0.03)

4-1 @ 2.3% ▲ (+0.07)

4-0 @ 1.94% ▲ (+0.08)

4-2 @ 1.36% ▲ (+0.03)

Other @ 3.46%

Total : 49.42%

Draw

1-1 @ 11.26% ▼ (-0.09)

2-2 @ 5.65% ▼ (-0.03)

0-0 @ 5.62% ▼ (-0.06)

3-3 @ 1.26% ▼ (-0.01)

Other @ 0.17%

Total : 23.96%

Newcastle Jets

1-2 @ 6.66% ▼ (-0.12)

0-1 @ 6.64% ▼ (-0.13)

0-2 @ 3.93% ▼ (-0.12)

1-3 @ 2.63% ▼ (-0.08)

2-3 @ 2.23% ▼ (-0.04)

0-3 @ 1.55% ▼ (-0.07)

Other @ 2.98%

Total : 26.6%

Head to Head

Feb 12, 2023 4.00am

2

1

HT : 1 0

FT McDonald Jones Stadium

Beka Mikeltadze 37'
Kosta Grozos 58'

Nishan Velupillay 51'

Nov 4, 2022 8.45am

4

0

HT : 1 0

FT AAMI Park

Jake Brimmer 16'
Chris Ikonomidis 50'
Nicholas D'Agostino 54'
Bruno Fornaroli 89'

Apr 16, 2022 10.45am

1

2

HT : 0 1

FT

Jordan Elsey 41'
Savvas Siatravanis 65'

Nicholas D'Agostino 6'
Ben Folami 58'
Francesco Margiotta 90'+3'

Feb 12, 2022 8.45am

1

2

HT : 1 0

FT

Joshua Brillante 28'
Jake Brimmer 45'+2'
Joshua Brillante 48'
Nishan Velupillay 86'

Jordan Elsey 5'
Beka Mikeltadze 21'
Valentino Yuel 57'
Beka Mikeltadze 70'

Apr 10, 2021 6.05am

1

2

HT : 1 0

FT

Apostolos Stamatelopoulos 18'
Angus Thurgate 66'
Syahrian Abimanyu 90'+3'

Dylan Ryan 48'
Jacob Butterfield 63'
Lleyton Brooks 79'
Luis Lawrie-Lattanzio 81'
Brandon Lauton 90'+1'

Feb 21, 2021 5.05am

0

1

HT : 0 0

FT

Storm Roux 29'

Nigel Boogaard 41'
Angus Thurgate 56'
Angus Thurgate 72'
Matthew Millar 86'

Form Data

Sydney FC 0 - 2 Victory

Victory 0 - 1 Brisbane Roar

Victory 2 - 1 Macarthur

Western Sydney 2 - 1 Victory

Victory 0 - 0 Perth Glory

Melbourne City 2 - 1 Victory

Perth Glory 2 - 2 Newcastle Jets

Sydney FC 2 - 0 Newcastle Jets

Newcastle Jets 1 - 3 Central Coast

Newcastle Jets 2 - 1 Macarthur

Brisbane Roar 3 - 0 Newcastle Jets

Melbourne City 1 - 1 Newcastle Jets