Australian A-League | 1st Leg

May 12, 2024 at 7am UK

Marvel Stadium

Victory
0 - 0
Wellington

(Melbourne Victory win 2-1 on aggregate)

Arzani (88'), Arzani (88')

Ball (41'), Ball (41'), Pennington (52'), Pennington (52'), Rufer (90+5'), Rufer (90+5')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Wellington Phoenix.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 1-1 Melbourne City (3-2 pen.)
Sunday, May 5 at 8am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions

Last Game: Wellington 3-0 Macarthur
Saturday, April 27 at 8.15am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 50.19%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 27.59% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.13%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.

Result
Melbourne Victory	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
50.19% ( 0.11)	22.22% ( -0.02)	27.59% ( -0.1)

Both teams to score 63.71% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.87% (

-0.02)

36.13% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.76% (

-0.02)

58.24% (

0.01)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.28% (

0.03)

14.72% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.08% (

0.06)

42.92% (

-0.06)

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.7% (

-0.08)

25.3% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.93% (

-0.1)

60.06% (

0.1)

Score Analysis

Melbourne Victory 50.19%

Wellington Phoenix 27.59%

Draw 22.22%

Melbourne Victory	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
2-1 @ 9.39% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.13% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 6% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.37% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 4.12% 4-1 @ 2.87% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.09% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.98% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.1% ( 0) 4-3 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 3.39% Total : 50.19%	1-1 @ 9.81% ( -0) 2-2 @ 6.46% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.72% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.89% ( -0) Other @ 0.35% Total : 22.22%	1-2 @ 6.74% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 5.12% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.52% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.09% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.96% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.02% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.48% Total : 27.59%