Australian A-League | Gameweek 24

Apr 12, 2024 at 8am UK

Wellington Regional Stadium

Wellington
1 - 0
Victory

Surman (90+5' og.)
Payne (31'), Ball (65')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Monge (34'), Da Silva (90+1')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory.

Form, Standings, Stats

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions

Last Game: Central Coast 2-1 Wellington
Saturday, April 6 at 7.30am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 2-1 Melbourne City
Saturday, April 6 at 9.45am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 49.4%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 27.62% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.04%) and 0-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (6.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.

Result
Wellington Phoenix	Draw	Melbourne Victory
27.62% ( -0.41)	22.98% ( -0.01)	49.4% ( 0.42)

Both teams to score 60.95% (

-0.31)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.23% (

-0.26)

39.77% (

0.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.87% (

-0.27)

62.13% (

0.27)

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.85% (

-0.42)

27.16% (

0.42)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.45% (

-0.55)

62.56% (

0.55)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.67% (

0.06)

16.33% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.08% (

0.1)

45.92% (

-0.1)

Score Analysis

Wellington Phoenix 27.62%

Melbourne Victory 49.4%

Draw 22.98%

Wellington Phoenix	Draw	Melbourne Victory
2-1 @ 6.83% ( -0.07) 1-0 @ 5.78% ( 0) 2-0 @ 3.77% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 2.97% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.69% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 1.64% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.98% Total : 27.62%	1-1 @ 10.47% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.19% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 4.43% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.26% Total : 22.98%	1-2 @ 9.49% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 8.04% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 7.28% ( 0.11) 1-3 @ 5.73% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 4.4% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 3.74% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 2.6% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.99% ( 0.04) 2-4 @ 1.69% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.49% Total : 49.4%