Australian A-League | Gameweek 20

Mar 9, 2024 at 9.15am UK

Coopers Stadium

Adelaide United
1 - 2
Victory

Irankunda (51')
Ansell (55')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Fornaroli (33', 57' pen.)
Miranda (87'), Izzo (90+7')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Adelaide United and Melbourne Victory.

Form, Standings, Stats

Adelaide United

All competitions

Last Game: Wellington 3-2 Adelaide United
Sunday, March 3 at 4am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Brisbane Roar 3-2 Victory
Sunday, March 3 at 6am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 42.39%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 34.78% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.29%) and 0-2 (5.52%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 2-1 (7.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Melbourne Victory in this match.

Result
Adelaide United	Draw	Melbourne Victory
34.78% ( 0.42)	22.82% ( 0)	42.39% ( -0.42)

Both teams to score 65.56% (

0.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.63% (

0.1)

35.37% (

-0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.6% (

0.12)

57.4% (

-0.11)

Adelaide United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.26% (

0.26)

20.73% (

-0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.64% (

0.41)

53.35% (

-0.41)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.71% (

-0.13)

17.29% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.36% (

-0.22)

47.63% (

0.22)

Score Analysis

Adelaide United 34.78%

Melbourne Victory 42.39%

Draw 22.82%

Adelaide United	Draw	Melbourne Victory
2-1 @ 7.79% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 5.64% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 4.44% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 4.09% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 3.59% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 2.33% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.61% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.41% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.99% Total : 34.78%	1-1 @ 9.9% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.83% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 3.58% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.41% Total : 22.82%	1-2 @ 8.69% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 6.29% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 5.52% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 5.08% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 4% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 3.23% ( -0.06) 1-4 @ 2.23% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.75% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.42% ( -0.03) 3-4 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 3.27% Total : 42.39%