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Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League | Gameweek 19
Mar 3, 2024 at 4am UK
Wellington Regional Stadium
Adelaide United

Wellington
3 - 2
Adelaide United

Old (34', 78'), van Hattum (69')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Jovanovic (60' pen.), Ibusuki (90+4')
Sanchez (54'), Warland (76'), Irankunda (90+2'), Irankunda (90+4')
Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Adelaide United.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Perth Glory 0-0 Wellington
Saturday, February 24 at 10.45am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Adelaide United 1-2 Western Sydney
Saturday, February 24 at 8.45am in Australian A-League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 37.3% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.84%) and 2-0 (5.04%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.

Result
Wellington PhoenixDrawAdelaide United
40.01% (0.349 0.35) 22.68% (0.43 0.43) 37.3% (-0.775 -0.77)
Both teams to score 66.57% (-1.774 -1.77)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.76% (-2.27 -2.27)34.24% (2.274 2.27)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.86% (-2.608 -2.61)56.14% (2.612 2.61)
Wellington Phoenix Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.19% (-0.81400000000001 -0.81)17.81% (0.817 0.82)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.47% (-1.423 -1.42)48.53% (1.427 1.43)
Adelaide United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.99% (-1.34 -1.34)19% (1.343 1.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.44% (-2.275 -2.28)50.56% (2.278 2.28)
Score Analysis
    Wellington Phoenix 40.01%
    Adelaide United 37.3%
    Draw 22.68%
Wellington PhoenixDrawAdelaide United
2-1 @ 8.37% (0.193 0.19)
1-0 @ 5.84% (0.52 0.52)
2-0 @ 5.04% (0.324 0.32)
3-1 @ 4.81% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
3-2 @ 4% (-0.19 -0.19)
3-0 @ 2.9% (0.113 0.11)
4-1 @ 2.08% (-0.064 -0.06)
4-2 @ 1.72% (-0.131 -0.13)
4-0 @ 1.25% (0.016 0.02)
4-3 @ 0.95% (-0.118 -0.12)
Other @ 3.06%
Total : 40.01%
1-1 @ 9.7% (0.474 0.47)
2-2 @ 6.95% (-0.139 -0.14)
0-0 @ 3.38% (0.383 0.38)
3-3 @ 2.21% (-0.207 -0.21)
Other @ 0.45%
Total : 22.68%
1-2 @ 8.05% (0.056000000000001 0.06)
0-1 @ 5.62% (0.417 0.42)
0-2 @ 4.67% (0.155 0.16)
1-3 @ 4.46% (-0.164 -0.16)
2-3 @ 3.85% (-0.25 -0.25)
0-3 @ 2.58% (-0.024 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.85% (-0.152 -0.15)
2-4 @ 1.6% (-0.179 -0.18)
0-4 @ 1.07% (-0.058 -0.06)
3-4 @ 0.92% (-0.131 -0.13)
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 37.3%

Head to Head
Jan 4, 2024 8.45am
Gameweek 11
Adelaide United
2-2
Wellington
Ibusuki (26', 55')
Irankunda (37'), Tunnicliffe (41'), Popovic (43'), Ibusuki (90+4')
Warland (83')
Barbarouses (15', 46')
Paulsen (77'), van Hattum (90+2')
May 5, 2023 10.45am
Mar 17, 2023 8.45am
Gameweek 21
Adelaide United
5-1
Wellington
Wootton (16' og.), Jovanovic (23'), Barr (51'), Ibusuki (62'), Goodwin (71')
Rufer (54' pen.)
Dec 17, 2022 2am
Gameweek 8
Wellington
3-1
Adelaide United
Zawada (2'), Kraev (37'), Sasse (61')
Goodwin (12')
Oct 9, 2022 3am
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Result
Ruud
Tsitsipas
1 4
6 6
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast25154644261849
2Wellington PhoenixWellington25147438251349
3Melbourne VictoryVictory251011440291141
4Sydney FCSydney FC2511594539638
5Macarthur2510874445-138
6Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney25104113943-434
7Melbourne CityMelbourne City25961047371033
8Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar2585123951-1229
9Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United2484124545028
10Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets2569103743-627
11Perth GloryPerth Glory2557134258-1622
12Western UnitedWestern Utd2464142948-1922


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