Australian A-League | Gameweek 19

Mar 3, 2024 at 4am UK

Wellington Regional Stadium

Wellington
3 - 2
Adelaide United

Old (34', 34', 78', 78'), van Hattum (69', 69')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Jovanovic (60' pen., 60' pen.), Ibusuki (90+4', 90+4')
Sanchez (54'), Sanchez (54'), Warland (75'), Warland (76'), Irankunda (90+2'), Irankunda (90+4'), Irankunda (90+2'), Irankunda (90+4')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Adelaide United.

Form, Standings, Stats

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions

Last Game: Perth Glory 0-0 Wellington
Saturday, February 24 at 10.45am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Adelaide United

All competitions

Last Game: Adelaide United 1-2 Western Sydney
Saturday, February 24 at 8.45am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 37.3% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.84%) and 2-0 (5.04%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.

Result
Wellington Phoenix	Draw	Adelaide United
40.01% ( 0.35)	22.68% ( 0.43)	37.3% ( -0.77)

Both teams to score 66.57% (

-1.77)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.76% (

-2.27)

34.24% (

2.27)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.86% (

-2.61)

56.14% (

2.61)

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.19% (

-0.81)

17.81% (

0.82)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.47% (

-1.42)

48.53% (

1.43)

Adelaide United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.99% (

-1.34)

19% (

1.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.44% (

-2.28)

50.56% (

2.28)

Score Analysis

Wellington Phoenix 40.01%

Adelaide United 37.3%

Draw 22.68%

Wellington Phoenix	Draw	Adelaide United
2-1 @ 8.37% ( 0.19) 1-0 @ 5.84% ( 0.52) 2-0 @ 5.04% ( 0.32) 3-1 @ 4.81% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 4% ( -0.19) 3-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 2.08% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.13) 4-0 @ 1.25% ( 0.02) 4-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.12) Other @ 3.06% Total : 40.01%	1-1 @ 9.7% ( 0.47) 2-2 @ 6.95% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 3.38% ( 0.38) 3-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.21) Other @ 0.45% Total : 22.68%	1-2 @ 8.05% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 5.62% ( 0.42) 0-2 @ 4.67% ( 0.16) 1-3 @ 4.46% ( -0.16) 2-3 @ 3.85% ( -0.25) 0-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.85% ( -0.15) 2-4 @ 1.6% ( -0.18) 0-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.06) 3-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.13) Other @ 2.65% Total : 37.3%