Australian A-League | Gameweek 12

Feb 20, 2024 at 8am UK

Marvel Stadium

Victory
2 - 1
Western Utd

Da Silva (90+5', 90+8')
Velupillay (13'), Fornaroli (90+8')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Penha (60')
Ruhs (17'), Imai (21')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Western United.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Melbourne City 0-0 Victory
Saturday, February 17 at 8.45am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Western United

All competitions

Last Game: Western Utd 2-0 Newcastle Jets
Friday, February 16 at 8.45am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 47.9%. A win for Western United had a probability of 29.15% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.56%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Western United win was 1-2 (7.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Melbourne Victory in this match.

Result
Melbourne Victory	Draw	Western United
47.9% ( 0.12)	22.95% ( 0.09)	29.15% ( -0.21)

Both teams to score 62.29% (

-0.45)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.48% (

-0.53)

38.52% (

0.53)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.18% (

-0.57)

60.81% (

0.57)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.59% (

-0.16)

16.4% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.94% (

-0.28)

46.05% (

0.28)

Western United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.51% (

-0.4)

25.48% (

0.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.67% (

-0.55)

60.32% (

0.55)

Score Analysis

Melbourne Victory 47.9%

Western United 29.15%

Draw 22.95%

Melbourne Victory	Draw	Western United
2-1 @ 9.34% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 7.56% ( 0.15) 2-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 5.63% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.12% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 2.54% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.53% Total : 47.9%	1-1 @ 10.33% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 6.38% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 4.18% ( 0.11) 3-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.3% Total : 22.95%	1-2 @ 7.06% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 5.71% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 3.91% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.22% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 2.91% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 0.99% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.46% Total : 29.15%