Australian A-League | Gameweek 20

Mar 9, 2024 at 8am UK

AAMI Park

Melbourne City
1 - 0
Wellington

Souprayen (58', 58')
Jeggo (15'), Jeggo (15'), Souprayen (72'), Souprayen (72'), Nabbout (79'), Jakolis (84')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Salas (34'), Salas (34'), Barbarouses (70'), Barbarouses (70'), Rufer (82')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne City and Wellington Phoenix.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne City

All competitions

Last Game: Macarthur 2-0 Melbourne City
Friday, March 1 at 9.28am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions

Last Game: Wellington 3-2 Adelaide United
Sunday, March 3 at 4am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 54.98%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 23.78% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.41%) and 1-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.

Result
Melbourne City	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
54.98% ( 0.51)	21.23% ( 0.03)	23.78% ( -0.56)

Both teams to score 63.3% (

-0.83)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.05% (

-0.79)

34.95% (

0.78)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.07% (

-0.88)

56.93% (

0.88)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.19% (

-0.12)

12.8% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.88% (

-0.23)

39.11% (

0.22)

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.59% (

-0.86)

27.4% (

0.85)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.11% (

-1.12)

62.88% (

1.12)

Score Analysis

Melbourne City 54.98%

Wellington Phoenix 23.78%

Draw 21.23%

Melbourne City	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
2-1 @ 9.59% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 7.41% ( 0.23) 1-0 @ 7.21% ( 0.25) 3-1 @ 6.58% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 5.08% ( 0.14) 3-2 @ 4.26% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 3.38% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.61% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.05) 5-1 @ 1.39% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.07% ( 0.02) 4-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.27% Total : 54.98%	1-1 @ 9.33% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 6.21% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 3.51% ( 0.14) 3-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.34% Total : 21.23%	1-2 @ 6.04% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 4.54% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.68% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 2.61% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 1.27% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.71% Total : 23.78%