Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 35

May 5, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Genoa
1 - 2
AC Milan

Vitinha (61')
Thorsby (27')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Leao (76'), Frendrup (77' og.)
Pavlovic (21'), Loftus-Cheek (69'), Leao (82'), Gabbia (84'), Felix (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Serie A clash between Genoa and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Genoa

All competitions

Last Game: Como 1-0 Genoa
Sunday, April 27 at 11.30am in Serie A

Goals
for

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Venezia 0-2 AC Milan
Sunday, April 27 at 11.30am in Serie A

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 54.2%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 21.46%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.13%) and 1-2 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Genoa win it was 1-0 (6.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for AC Milan in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AC Milan.

Result
Genoa	Draw	AC Milan
21.46% ( -1.01)	24.34% ( 0.22)	54.2% ( 0.79)

Both teams to score 49.76% (

-1.98)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.59% (

-1.97)

51.4% (

1.96)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.78% (

-1.74)

73.22% (

1.74)

Genoa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.35% (

-2.1)

38.65% (

2.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.61% (

-2.05)

75.39% (

2.05)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.11% (

-0.44)

18.88% (

0.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.64% (

-0.74)

50.36% (

0.74)

Score Analysis

Genoa 21.46%

AC Milan 54.19%

Draw 24.33%

Genoa	Draw	AC Milan
1-0 @ 6.94% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 5.5% ( -0.27) 2-0 @ 3.3% ( -0.12) 3-1 @ 1.74% ( -0.19) 3-2 @ 1.45% ( -0.18) 3-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.1) Other @ 1.49% Total : 21.46%	1-1 @ 11.56% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.56) 2-2 @ 4.58% ( -0.3) Other @ 0.89% Total : 24.33%	0-1 @ 12.16% ( 0.77) 0-2 @ 10.13% ( 0.5) 1-2 @ 9.64% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 5.63% ( 0.21) 1-3 @ 5.36% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.2) 0-4 @ 2.35% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 2.23% ( -0.08) 2-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.1) Other @ 3.08% Total : 54.19%