Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Como win with a probability of 54.48%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 19.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Como win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.36%) and 2-1 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (7.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Como in this match.