Serie A | Gameweek 33
Apr 23, 2025 at 5.30pm UK
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Genoa0 - 2Lazio
We said: Genoa 1-1 Lazio
Surely bearing the scars of their Europa League loss, Lazio could be vulnerable on Monday evening - particularly as Genoa are so tough to beat. Yet, the Biancocelesti have scored a league-leading 18 goals in the final 15 minutes this season - six coming after the 90th minute - and with no fewer than 16 strikes via substitutes they should at least stave off defeat. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 40.05%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 31.92% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.2%) and 0-2 (7.58%). The likeliest Genoa win was 1-0 (10.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Genoa | Draw | Lazio |
31.92% ( 0.09) | 28.03% ( -0.02) | 40.05% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 47.12% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
