Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 49.47%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 25.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.53%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest Lazio win was 0-1 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.