Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 40.29%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 35.13% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.13%) and 0-2 (6.19%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 2-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.