Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 30

Mar 30, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Napoli
2 - 1
AC Milan

Politano (2'), Lukaku (19')
Lukaku (40'), Conte (76')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Jovic (84')
Jimenez (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Napoli and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Napoli

All competitions

Last Game: Venezia 0-0 Napoli
Sunday, March 16 at 11.30am in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: AC Milan 2-1 Como
Saturday, March 15 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 50.07%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 25.77% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Napoli in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Napoli.

Result
Napoli	Draw	AC Milan
50.07% ( 0.06)	24.16% ( -0.03)	25.77% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 55.24% (

0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.44% (

0.11)

46.56% (

-0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.17% (

0.11)

68.83% (

-0.1)

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.36% (

0.07)

18.64% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.05% (

0.11)

49.95% (

-0.1)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.9% (

0.04)

32.1% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.42% (

0.04)

68.58% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Napoli 50.07%

AC Milan 25.77%

Draw 24.16%

Napoli	Draw	AC Milan
1-0 @ 10.05% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.59% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.44% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.37% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.73% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.05% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.26% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.99% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.28% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.31% Total : 50.07%	1-1 @ 11.42% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.98% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.45% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.16% ( 0) Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.16%	0-1 @ 6.8% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.49% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.86% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.46% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.46% ( -0) Other @ 2.63% Total : 25.77%