Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 28

Mar 9, 2025 at 2pm UK

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Napoli
2 - 1
Fiorentina

Lukaku (26'), Raspadori (60')
Buongiorno (47')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Gudmundsson (66')
Gudmundsson (64'), Pongracic (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Napoli and Fiorentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Napoli

All competitions

Last Game: Napoli 1-1 Inter Milan
Saturday, March 1 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Fiorentina

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Panathinaikos 3-2 Fiorentina
Thursday, March 6 at 5.45pm in Conference League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 51.28%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Fiorentina had a probability of 24.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 2-0 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%), while for a Fiorentina win it was 0-1 (7.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.

Result
Napoli	Draw	Fiorentina
51.28% ( 0.05)	24.66% ( 0.02)	24.06% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 51.91% (

-0.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.87% (

-0.15)

50.13% (

0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.91% (

-0.14)

72.09% (

0.14)

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.46% (

-0.04)

19.54% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.56% (

-0.06)

51.44% (

0.07)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.52% (

-0.15)

35.48% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.76% (

-0.16)

72.24% (

0.16)

Score Analysis

Napoli 51.27%

Fiorentina 24.06%

Draw 24.65%

Napoli	Draw	Fiorentina
1-0 @ 11.31% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.58% ( -0) 2-0 @ 9.24% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.21% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.03% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.7% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.13% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.05% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.93% Total : 51.27%	1-1 @ 11.72% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.93% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.65%	0-1 @ 7.18% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.08% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.72% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.98% Total : 24.06%