Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 15

Dec 6, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Gewiss Stadium

Atalanta
2 - 1
AC Milan

De Ketelaere (12'), Lookman (87')
De Ketelaere (55'), Bellanova (71')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Morata (22')
Fonseca (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Serie A clash between Atalanta BC and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atalanta BC

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Roma 0-2 Atalanta
Monday, December 2 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: AC Milan 6-1 Sassuolo
Tuesday, December 3 at 8pm in Coppa Italia

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 51.38%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 25.38% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.1%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (6.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Atalanta BC in this match.

Result
Atalanta BC	Draw	AC Milan
51.38% ( 0.72)	23.24% ( -0.29)	25.38% ( -0.42)

Both teams to score 57.95% (

0.57)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.19% (

0.95)

42.81% (

-0.95)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.79% (

0.94)

65.21% (

-0.93)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.27% (

0.62)

16.73% (

-0.61)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.35% (

1.09)

46.65% (

-1.09)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.59% (

0.18)

30.41% (

-0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.39% (

0.21)

66.61% (

-0.2)

Score Analysis

Atalanta BC 51.38%

AC Milan 25.38%

Draw 23.23%

Atalanta BC	Draw	AC Milan
2-1 @ 9.68% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 9.1% ( -0.2) 2-0 @ 8.13% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.77% ( 0.14) 3-0 @ 4.85% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 3.43% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 2.58% ( 0.11) 4-0 @ 2.17% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.54% ( 0.07) 5-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.06) Other @ 3.22% Total : 51.38%	1-1 @ 10.82% ( -0.19) 2-2 @ 5.76% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 5.09% ( -0.22) 3-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.23%	1-2 @ 6.45% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 6.06% ( -0.23) 0-2 @ 3.61% ( -0.12) 1-3 @ 2.56% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.29% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.04) Other @ 3% Total : 25.38%