Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 48.85%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 28.98% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.7%) and 0-2 (6.42%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 2-1 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.