Primeira Liga | Gameweek 22

Feb 15, 2025 at 8.30pm UK

Estadio Jose Alvalade

Sporting Lisbon
2 - 2
Arouca

Harder (17'), Trincao (74')
Hjulmand (45+3'), Tcherno Quenda (69')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Silva (8' og.), Araujo (45+5' pen.)
Simao (79'), Mantl (90+2'), Mantl (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Sporting Lisbon and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 0-3 Dortmund
Tuesday, February 11 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Arouca

All competitions

Last Game: Arouca 1-1 Rio Ave
Monday, February 10 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 61.31%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 18.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.99%) and 1-0 (8.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.2%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-2 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.

Result
Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Arouca
61.31% ( 0.09)	20.15% ( -0.01)	18.53% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 58.81% (

-0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.88% (

-0.06)

37.11% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.69% (

-0.06)

59.31% (

0.06)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.3% (

0.01)

11.7% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

63.19% (

0.02)

36.8% (

-0.02)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.6% (

-0.11)

33.39% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.98% (

-0.12)

70.02% (

0.12)

Score Analysis

Sporting Lisbon 61.31%

Arouca 18.53%

Draw 20.15%

Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Arouca
2-1 @ 9.86% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.99% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 8.38% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 7.05% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.43% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.87% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.78% ( 0) 4-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.08% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.62% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.48% ( 0.01) Other @ 4.3% Total : 61.31%	1-1 @ 9.2% 2-2 @ 5.41% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.91% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.23% Total : 20.15%	1-2 @ 5.04% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 4.29% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.35% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.98% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.03% Total : 18.53%