Primeira Liga | Gameweek 20

Feb 2, 2025 at 6pm UK

Estadio Jose Alvalade

Sporting Lisbon
3 - 1
Farense

Fresneda (11'), Diomande (26'), Harder (88')
Fresneda (56')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Africo (45+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Sporting Lisbon and SC Farense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 1-1 Bologna
Wednesday, January 29 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

SC Farense

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Farense 1-2 Rio Ave
Saturday, January 25 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 79.21%. A draw had a probability of 14% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 6.79%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.72%) and 1-0 (10.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.64%), while for a SC Farense win it was 0-1 (2.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.

Result
Sporting Lisbon	Draw	SC Farense
79.21% ( -0.43)	14% ( 0.24)	6.79% ( 0.19)

Both teams to score 41.95% (

0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.84% (

-0.39)

39.16% (

0.38)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.51% (

-0.41)

61.49% (

0.4)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.09% (

-0.18)

7.91% (

0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

72.01% (

-0.46)

27.98% (

0.46)

SC Farense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

45.55% (

0.27)

54.45% (

-0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

12.45% (

0.16)

87.55% (

-0.17)

Score Analysis

Sporting Lisbon 79.2%

SC Farense 6.79%

Draw 14%

Sporting Lisbon	Draw	SC Farense
2-0 @ 13.86% 3-0 @ 11.72% ( -0.1) 1-0 @ 10.92% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 8.43% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 7.43% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 7.13% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 4.52% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 3.77% ( -0.11) 5-1 @ 2.29% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.17% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 1.59% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 1.37% ( -0) 6-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.02% Total : 79.2%	1-1 @ 6.64% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 4.31% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 2.56% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.48% Total : 14%	0-1 @ 2.62% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 2.02% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.16% Total : 6.79%