Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 48.6%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 26.84% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.48%) and 0-2 (8.26%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.