Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 79%. A draw had a probability of 14.6% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 6.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 15.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.72%) and 0-3 (12.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.79%), while for a Moreirense win it was 1-0 (2.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.