Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 56.2%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Arsenal had a probability of 21.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.27%) and 2-0 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.29%), while for an Arsenal win it was 1-2 (5.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.