Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 91.09%. A draw had a probability of 6.6% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 2.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 3-0 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (11.62%) and 2-0 (11.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.13%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (0.89%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.