Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 56.72%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 19.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.36%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (6.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
| 56.72% ( | 24.01% ( | 19.26% ( |
| Both teams to score 47.53% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.29% ( | 52.71% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.65% ( | 74.34% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.58% ( | 18.42% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.42% ( | 49.58% ( |
| Estrela Amadora Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.27% ( | 41.73% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.8% ( | 78.2% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
| 1-0 @ 13% ( 2-0 @ 11% ( 2-1 @ 9.61% ( 3-0 @ 6.2% ( 3-1 @ 5.42% ( 4-0 @ 2.62% ( 3-2 @ 2.37% ( 4-1 @ 2.29% ( 4-2 @ 1% ( Other @ 3.2% Total : 56.72% | 1-1 @ 11.36% ( 0-0 @ 7.69% ( 2-2 @ 4.2% ( Other @ 0.76% Total : 24.01% | 0-1 @ 6.72% ( 1-2 @ 4.97% ( 0-2 @ 2.94% ( 1-3 @ 1.45% ( 2-3 @ 1.22% ( Other @ 1.98% Total : 19.26% |

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 88 | 27 | 61 | 82 |
| 2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 84 | 28 | 56 | 80 |
| 3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 65 | 30 | 35 | 71 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 55 | 30 | 25 | 66 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 57 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 54 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 47 |
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 48 | 53 | -5 | 46 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 45 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 40 |
| 11 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 38 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 38 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 34 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 50 | -26 | 29 |
| R | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 27 |
| 17 | AVS | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 25 | 60 | -35 | 27 |
| R | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 24 | 59 | -35 | 24 |
| > Primeira Liga Full Table | |||||||||
