Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 42.27%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 31.95% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.87%) and 0-2 (7.24%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 (8.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Estrela Amadora | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 31.95% ( | 25.78% ( | 42.27% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.02% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.97% ( | 50.02% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.99% ( | 72% ( |
| Estrela Amadora Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.61% ( | 29.38% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.63% ( | 65.36% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.5% ( | 23.5% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.47% ( | 57.53% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Estrela Amadora | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 8.46% ( 2-1 @ 7.5% ( 2-0 @ 5.18% ( 3-1 @ 3.06% ( 3-2 @ 2.22% ( 3-0 @ 2.11% ( 4-1 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 2.48% Total : 31.95% | 1-1 @ 12.24% 0-0 @ 6.9% ( 2-2 @ 5.43% ( 3-3 @ 1.07% ( Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.77% | 0-1 @ 10% ( 1-2 @ 8.87% ( 0-2 @ 7.24% ( 1-3 @ 4.28% 0-3 @ 3.5% ( 2-3 @ 2.62% ( 1-4 @ 1.55% 0-4 @ 1.27% ( 2-4 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 2% Total : 42.27% |