Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 52.98%. A win for SC Farense had a probability of 24.1% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.2%) and 2-0 (8.41%). The likeliest SC Farense win was 1-2 (6.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.