Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 51.8%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 23.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.63%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (7.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.