Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 65.09%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 13.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.11%) and 1-2 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.02%), while for a Moreirense win it was 1-0 (5.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.