Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 41.13%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 32.23% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.62%) and 0-2 (7.35%). The likeliest Boavista win was 1-0 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Boavista | Draw | Moreirense |
| 32.23% ( | 26.64% ( | 41.13% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.38% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.53% ( | 53.47% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25% ( | 74.99% ( |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.07% ( | 30.92% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.78% ( | 67.22% ( |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.38% ( | 25.61% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.5% ( | 60.5% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Boavista | Draw | Moreirense |
| 1-0 @ 9.3% ( 2-1 @ 7.43% ( 2-0 @ 5.46% ( 3-1 @ 2.91% ( 3-0 @ 2.13% ( 3-2 @ 1.98% ( Other @ 3.02% Total : 32.23% | 1-1 @ 12.66% ( 0-0 @ 7.92% ( 2-2 @ 5.06% ( Other @ 1% Total : 26.64% | 0-1 @ 10.78% ( 1-2 @ 8.62% ( 0-2 @ 7.35% ( 1-3 @ 3.92% ( 0-3 @ 3.34% ( 2-3 @ 2.3% ( 1-4 @ 1.33% ( 0-4 @ 1.14% ( Other @ 2.36% Total : 41.13% |