Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 41.13%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 32.23% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.62%) and 0-2 (7.35%). The likeliest Boavista win was 1-0 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.