Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 42.07%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 30.44% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (9.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.