UEFA Conference League

Conference League | League Stage

Dec 19, 2024 at 8pm UK

Estadio Dom Afonso Henriques

Guimaraes
1 - 1
Fiorentina

Gustavo (33')
Gustavo (42'), Silva (45+1'), Silva (50'), Varela (90+5')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Mandragora (87')
Kouame (66'), Manuel Gomes Borges (75'), Palladino (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Conference League clash between Vitoria de Guimaraes and Fiorentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Vitoria de Guimaraes

All competitions

Conference League

Last Game: Rio Ave 2-2 Guimaraes
Monday, December 16 at 8.45pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Fiorentina

All competitions

Conference League

Last Game: Bologna 1-0 Fiorentina
Sunday, December 15 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 42.07%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 30.44% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (9.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Fiorentina
42.07% ( -0.48)	27.49% ( -0.01)	30.44% ( 0.49)

Both teams to score 48.17% (

0.24)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.75% (

0.2)

57.26% (

-0.2)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.9% (

0.16)

78.1% (

-0.15)

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.14% (

-0.16)

26.86% (

0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.83% (

-0.21)

62.17% (

0.22)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.86% (

0.47)

34.14% (

-0.47)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.17% (

0.51)

70.83% (

-0.5)

Score Analysis

Vitoria de Guimaraes 42.07%

Fiorentina 30.44%

Draw 27.48%

Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Fiorentina
1-0 @ 12.05% ( -0.15) 2-1 @ 8.52% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 7.92% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 3.73% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 3.47% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 2.01% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.23% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.14% ( -0.03) Other @ 2% Total : 42.07%	1-1 @ 12.95% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.17% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 4.58% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.48%	0-1 @ 9.86% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 6.96% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 5.3% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 2.49% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 1.64% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.3% Total : 30.44%